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Flood Figures

Is flood insurance worth it? A framework built on the historical record

“Worth it” is a comparison between a known annual cost and an uncertain, occasionally very large loss — so the honest answer is a framework, not a verdict. The known side is measurable: the median annual NFIP premium as of June 1, 2026 is $813 in Florida, $852 in Texas, and $856 in Louisiana, the three states this site covers. The uncertain side has a forty-eight-year public record: since 1978, the NFIP has paid 446,882 claims in Florida ($19.3 billion), 388,553 in Texas ($17.4 billion), and 478,775 in Louisiana ($20.9 billion). This guide sets out both sides and the factors that typically connect them. It does not make a recommendation — this site publishes rules and records, not advice.

The cost side

The premium figures above are medians from FEMA’s record-level policy file; how much is flood insurance? breaks down medians versus means and premium versus total policy cost. What matters for this framework: the annual cost is knowable in advance, building-specific, and — for existing policies — capped in how fast it can change by the statutory glide path.

The loss side: what the record shows

Three features of the claims record are relevant to weighing the value of coverage.

Losses are episodic, not annual. The record is dominated by single years. In Louisiana, 2005 alone (the Katrina and Rita year) produced 189,251 claims and $13.8 billion in payments — roughly two-thirds of everything the state’s policyholders have ever been paid. Texas’s 2017 (Hurricane Harvey) produced 93,589 claims and $9.1 billion. Florida’s 2024 (the Helene and Milton season) produced 80,415 claims and $7.9 billion. A property can go decades between events that generate a claim.

Uninsured alternatives are thinner than commonly assumed. Standard homeowners and renters policies exclude flood damage. Federal disaster assistance requires a presidential disaster declaration, and the individual assistance that follows is typically a low-interest SBA loan — repayable — or a grant program whose payments are far smaller than typical flood claim payments.

The claim is contractual. An NFIP payment follows the policy terms — what flood insurance covers and the claims process — and does not depend on a disaster declaration or appropriations timing.

A neutral framework

Factors typically considered when weighing optional flood coverage:

  1. Legal position. Inside a Special Flood Hazard Area with a federally backed mortgage, the mandatory purchase rule removes the choice entirely.
  2. The building itself. First-floor height, foundation type, and distance to water drive both the premium and the plausibility of interior flooding — the same variables Risk Rating 2.0 prices.
  3. Local claim history. This site’s ZIP pages publish each area’s claim counts and paid amounts since 1978 — a record of what has already happened, not a prediction of what comes next. Start from Florida, Texas, or Louisiana.
  4. Capacity to self-insure. A household able to absorb a five- or six-figure repair without borrowing weighs the premium differently from one that cannot.
  5. Timing constraints. The standard 30-day waiting period means the option is only available in advance; coverage cannot be added when a storm is already forecast.
  6. Contents versus building. Renters and condo owners can insure contents alone at lower cost — see the renters guide and condo guide.

Common framings, restated neutrally

  • “I’m not in a flood zone.” Every mapped area has a zone; outside the SFHA the label is Zone X, meaning a lower mapped probability standard — not a mapped impossibility. A substantial share of policies in the covered states sit outside the SFHA by choice.
  • “The house has never flooded.” The record above shows losses concentrate in rare years; absence of a past claim is part of the record, not a guarantee. This site publishes history and does not forecast.
  • “Disaster aid covers it.” Aid is conditional, mostly repayable, and smaller than contractual claim payments — a difference in kind, not just size.

Frequently asked questions

What does the typical policyholder pay versus receive?

The cost side is the median premium above ($813–$856 per year in the covered states). The payment side is episodic: most policy-years produce no claim, while single catastrophic years produce five-figure average payments across tens of thousands of claims. The two sides are different shapes, which is the entire structure of insurance.

Is contents-only coverage a middle option?

Yes, structurally. Renters and owners can insure contents up to $100,000 without building coverage, at correspondingly lower premiums. Contents coverage pays at actual cash value and has notable basement limitations — see what flood insurance covers.

Does dropping coverage after a quiet decade have consequences beyond losing protection?

Under current rules, a lapse can affect eligibility for statutory discounts and the glide path position an existing policy carries — detailed in the glide path guide and the assumable policies guide.

Where do these claim numbers come from?

From FEMA’s public record-level claims file, aggregated by this site; the methodology page documents each computation and its vintage.

Sources

Related pages